MistaFlava's US Open Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)
All matches 1 unit
Using a system that went 21-4 in New Haven last week (regardless of odd value it picked dogs and favs), I have no choice but to make the following plays. This system evaluates players abilities on a certain surface and this system also evaluates players recent achievements and capabilities on this surface. Enjoy. I wish I had used this system instead of losing money all week but ah well, thats how it goes. The breakdown for New Haven was as follows:
ATP New Haven
Round of 48: 5-1
Round of 32: 12-0
Round of 16: 2-2
Quarter-Finals: 2-0
Semi-Finals: 0-1
Final: No Plays
21-4 last week using this system
Monday, August 27
Marcos Baghdatis 1.15 over Max Mirnyi
The price sucks but the bottom line is that Baghdatis is taylor made for tournaments like this one (slams other than Roland Garros) and I have no problems trying to steal a cheap penny with him here. Mirnyi did beat him on clay back in April in straight sets but like I said before, Baghdatis is not made for smaller ATP tournaments and he is not exactly made for the clay courts. Baghdatis lucked out last year when he had to face the emotional favorite Andre Agassi who had immense crowd backing and who was on his final hurrah as an ATP tennis player. The year before that he succumbed to the nerves of playing his first US Open as a player ranked in the TOP 100 and the year before that he had the displeasure of playing against Roger Federer in his second round match. Max Mirnyi is not in form to win this match as he is 0-5 in his last five tennis matches and has not won against a TOP 100 opponent since beating Gael Monfils in early June on the grass courts. This one could go four sets but like I said before, the money is in the bank and finally Baghdatis has the chance to come into this tournament feeling good about himself having won 4 of his 6 hardcourt season matches (only losses to Federer and Roddick).
Donald Young 2.11 over Chris Guccione
Let me tell you guys right now to be very very careful if your money is on the hard serving Aussie in this one. I know some of you fancy him because of the odds but I would like to remind you that this is the US Open, this is being played in front of American fans, there is no Andre Agassi or American Hero story to speak of as of right now and the tournament (media included) is searching for a story to talk about. What I mean by that is that they want to know which player should get the next few night time CENTRE COURT starts. Donald Young finally won his first ATP Tournament event match this past week in New Haven and he then gave the #4 player in the world a good run for his money in a nice three setter the following day. So if he almost beat the world's fourth best player, why the hell would he not be able to win this match against a guy who just lost to 346th ranked Keving Anderson in New Haven qualies??? Guccione is not in any kind of form to be blowing away opponents right now and since Donald Young no longer has the mental blockage of not winning his first ATP Tour match, I think the young American is going to pull out the big guns in this one and do some special things. Young has won grand slam junior events in the past meaning he is good enough to beat guys like Guccione. Don't waste your time, bet on the feel good story of this year's US Open.
Tomas Berdych 1.16 over Marc Gicquel
Once again this does not look like a tough one at all. Berdych comes into this match with a mediocre 2-2 record on the american hardcourts since arriving from Europe but thats a lot more than Gicquel can say seeing how he didn't make much of an effort to enter any tournaments and it seems like he is only here to collect the first round money payout. Surprisingly enough, and this may concern some, Gicquel somehow made it all the way to the Round of 16 in last year's US Open before losing to Roger Federer in three sets. Still...he managed to beat Christope Rochus, Gaston Gaudio and Juan Carlos Ferrero which was impressive at the time but which was also a full year ago. Since last year's US Open, Gicquel has gone 26-25 while Berdych continues to improve his game and impress his fans with a 51-24 record since the Open in 2006. Speaking of Berdych and the US Open, he was a round of 16 competitor as well in 2006 before crashing out against James Blake in a surprising easy three sets. Berdych has never lost an opening round match at Flushing Meadows winning in 2003 against Tomas Behrend, in 2004 against Jonas Bjorkman, in 2005 against Philipp Kohlschreiber and in 2006 against Boris Pashanski. That makes him 4-0 in the first round matches here and I think we can make it 5-0 after today.
Philipp Petzschner 2.91 over Benjamin Becker
Don't shy away from betting on upsets because believe me when I say that things are not going to go all that smoothly for all the favorites and anyone who thinks thats the case, get your head checked. We all found that out the hard way the last two or three weeks on these american hardcourts. To get into the main draw, the 23 year old german beat Dick Norman, Leonard Mayer and Alexander Peya to earn his first ever MAIN DRAW entry at a grand slam. So no doubt there are going to be some serious nerves for this guy in this match but the way Becker has been playing these days don't be shocked if he Petzschner gives him the ride of his life and manages to win this in five sets. Benjamin Becker is always going to be remembered for ending the career of Andre Agassi at last year's US Open in the Round of 32 and don't think for one minute that this crowd is going to take it easy on him. Since beating Agassi last year, Becker is only 30-35 in 65 matches and since coming over to American to prepare for this tournament, he is 0-4...losing his first round matches in Indianapolis, Washington, Cincinnati and Montreal. Looking at the big picture, Becker has lost six straight on hardcourts and has not won on this surface since a Round Robin match in Las Vegas back in February. Give me the upset here.
Richard Gasquet 1.08 over Sergio Roitman
Shitty odds is about all you can talk about here but I am a big fan of grabbing free cash when the opportunity presents itself and that is what I am going to do right here. Roitman is a big time waste of space in this draw and they need to do something about guys like him somehow sneaking into the main draw of tournaments that they don't care about. Let's face it. Since March 2006 when he played in the qualies for TMS Indians Wells, Sergio Roitman has played in only five hardcourt matches and two of those were in a Challenger event. In those five matches he went 1-4 with his only win coming against Simone Bolleli back in March which is nothing to be proud of. I think quite possibly that Roitman is the worst player in this entire tournament and Gasquet should have no problems wipping his ass in three sets. Overall in his career, Roitman is 15-33 in hardcourt matches which is pretty damn bad and once again which brings into question why guys like him are even here? Since becoming a star player a few years back, Richard Gasquet has done quite well at this tournament making it to the Round of 16 back in 2005 and making the Round of 16 last year. I know he lost in Cincinnati and in Montreal and has not won a hardcourt match since March but he just can't lose this one.
Paul Capdeville 1.70 over Rainer Schuettler
Experience is not to be discarded for anything in tennis and experience does matter when it comes to winning five set matches like this one but let me tell you that Schuettler is getting old and I think he is in for a tough time against a young Chilean who plays with his heart on his sleeve and who doesn't really care what Schuettler has done in the past. The german veteran looked pretty good in qualies this past week but I think the qualies tournament could very well have drained him and the day off in between the qualies and his first match could really do some damage to his body. Capdeville was also forced to qualify for this tournament and he was equally impressive but I was more impressed by his quarter-finals run in Washington back in July where he beat Bozoljac, Amer Delic and Thomas Johansson before crashing out against Ivo Karlovic. This is the same kid that beat Julien Benneteau at the Australian Open in the first round and who was as impressive as it gets in his huge win over Thomas Johansson. A lot of people thought Schuettler was going to beat Nicolas Mahut in the first round of this tournament last year but he ran out of steam and the same will probably happen here again. Schuettler has lost both his best of five setters over the last 12 months while Capdeville managed to beat Benneateau. I think we go five sets and I give to the Chilean.
Andy Murray 1.19 over Pablo Cuevas
The risk can be considered very high because we don't really have any way of knowing how Murray's injury has healed but I think I am going to take my chances on this one and see how things go. The young kid from Uruguay is probably scared shitless in New York City right now and even though he was impressive in his qualifying tournament run the past few days, I don't give him much of a shot in this match. Cuevas has not played in many ATP Tour events but he does have BEST OF FIVE SETS match experience because he is a key member of the Uruguay Davis Cup team and he has played in 11 matches that could potentially go to five sets. The only problem there is that this kid is a natural clay court player and the transition, although it has been smooth to kick things off for him in NYC, is going to be a lot tougher against a player like Murray who is trying to get back on track and who is not about to lose a match like this one. Murray is a bit embarassed after losing in a big time blowout against Marcos Baghdatis in Cincinnati a few weeks ago and he must still be embarassed about his loss against Fognini (another blowout) a week earlier in Montreal. Murray looked decent in practice the last few days and I think he can use his run to the Round of 16 in last year's tournament to somehow squeak by a win against this kid from Uruguay. The price is right because of his injury and I want to cash in.
Nicolas Almagro 1.23 over Alex Kuznetsov
Wow again this is another very good price and I don't think many people are going to look at this match and immediately think of free money. I know I am going to do it and I recommend you all do it as well. Since coming to the US after his clay and mini-grass court season, Alamgro has shown that his game has gone from clay court specialist to being a player with options in his career. Almagro has impressed everyone in recent week by beating Florian Mayer, Ivan Ljubicic and Jarkko Nieminen in Cincinnati a few weeks back before losing to Roger Federer but first stealing a set from him and making things as interesting as it gets. Secondly, Almagro gave some guys a good run for their money in New Haven but PHM was too much for him and he took an early flight out to the Big Apple. Almagro won his first round match at the US Open the last time he played here which was in 2005 when he beat Kenneth Carlsen. His opponent this time around is one of the mandatory young american wild card players...Alex Kuznetsov...who was in the very same position last year as a wildcard and he looked terrible losing in straight sets to Tommy Haas while winning only six games in three sets. Almagro is not going to let this kid play games and even if its not done in straight sets, I think the young spaniard shows that the last two weeks were not a fluke.
Sebastien Grosjean 1.52 over Paul Goldstein
I am not a big fan of going against Americans in tournaments like this one but sometimes you just don't have a choice and I think we are getting some value with Grosjean at this price. Of course in a match involving two complete ass clowns anything can happen but the point here is to figure out who is going to make the least amount of mistakes. What people don't realize is that Goldstein is actually older than Grosjean so I don't want to hear this garbage about the frenchy being too old and about him having problems winning matches nowadays. Grosjean has not done too well since coming over from Europe to play in the US Open series but Goldstein has been just as useless and there is no point backing a guy like him who has never won a first round US Open match against a player ranked in the TOP 100. The two times he did win a first round match at this tournament it was against guys ranked outside the TOP 100 so don't expect anything from him at this age. Grosjean on the other hand beat Thomas Johansson in the first round last year, beat Oscar Hernandez in the first round of the 2005 tournament, beat Olivier Patience in the 2004 first round and is 5-2 over the years in his first round matches at Flushing Meadows. It won't come easy but I do like this price a lot and will bank on Grosjean showing us some cash money baby!
Hyung-Taik Lee 1.69 over Dominik Hrbaty
If you guys bet on tennis long enough and you bet on tennis more than once a week, you have surely by now figured out that Dominik Hrbaty is one of the best fades out there and it's about time we all start cashing in on this fade machine. Hrbaty is 2-3 in the US Open series leading up to this tournament and those two wins were his very first in North America in more than 12 months. He comes into this tournament with a very good history here, including a quarter-finals experience in 2005 and a Round of 16 appearance in 2006. However, Hrbaty is nothing like he used to be back in the day and that is why guys like Lee are going to push him to make mistakes he cannot recover from. Hrbaty is only 8-13 on hardcourts the last 12 months which is really bad and which is going to hinder his chances here. Lee on the other hand is 22-14 in his last 36 hardcourt matches which dates all the way back to the 2006 US Open. I really like the way Lee is taylor made to win this match and I like the fact that Lee has just as much experience playing here as Hrbaty having been in seven US Open first round matches and winning four of them. Lee looked in good shape in both Washington and Indianapolis and I think he comes into this tournament seeking the one win and the one win only. Let it be Mr Lee we need a win here.
Paul-Henri Mathieu 1.69 over Fernando Verdasco
This is by far going to be one of the most entertaining matches of the first round because both players have been playing some decent tennis and both players have been known to choke and choke and choke some more over the years. In three career meetings, Mathieu is a brutal 0-3 against Verdasco but tossing those stats out for a few minutes, I think he gets the job done today. What I find the toughest to believe is how Verdasco managed to beat him twice on hardcourts and twice in 2007. This is a definite rematch of their match at the Aussie Open earlier this year where Mathieu was forced to retire, once again making the stats look a little bit different than they really are. Verdasco looked pretty good in New Haven as he beat both Nieminen and Spadea before going out against eventual champion James Blake. He also looked good in Montreal where he beat Gasquet and Chela before going out against the Canadian sensation Frank Dancevic. Mathieu on the other hand did some good things in Montreal, looked very tired in his opening round loss in Cincinnati but got back to form in New Haven last week where he beat Luis Horna, Gilles Simon and Nicolas Almagro before also losing out against eventual champion James Blake in the Semi-Final. Mathieu comes into this tournament looking to win his third first round match in four years here and I think he gets the job done for us. PHM to the bank.
Guillermo Canas 1.10 over Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo
I have not yet checked the local drug reports for the Flushing Meadoes area as of last week but sources tell me that the cartel set aside for Chela, Canas and the other Argies has been lost in transit and some of these guys are going to have to rely on what they used to call individual skills to win matches. With or without his syringes, I have no doubt that Canas is capable of beating this chump from Spain like he has already done twice in his career prior to this. RRH has not set foot on a hardcourt surface since TMS Miami all the way back in March and without the practice or experience on these kinds of courts, this guy is going to be in real trouble. Canas comes into the tournament having lost his only two matches of the US Open series (in Cincinati and Montreal) but I think he can be excused for losing to PHM and Del Potro who are both up and coming players. Hidalgo is as far as it gets from being a guy who is up and coming which is why this is the type of player Canas is going to have success playing against. Canas has not played here since 2004 when he won two matches while RRH has been here twice in the past and been sent home packing after only one match both times. I don't see why anyone would think that RRH is about to come here and finally win a match since he has not touched the hardcourts since March. See ya spaniard, bring on the muscle cream.
Nicolas Kiefer 1.39 over Vincent Spadea
This is going to be another one of those interesting matches that I would like to personally watch on TV (even though that wont happen) and I think that offering odds like this on Kiefer is a gift from heaven. Kiefer has looked in pretty damn good shape as of late and although I did have my doubts on betting on him earlier this year because of injuries, he has more than proved that he is back and ready to win matches. Spadea has somewhat of a mental edge in this one knowing that he beat Kiefer in two of their three career meetings but what you have to understand is that they have not playe against each other since 2004 and Spadea was ranked higher than Kiefer in all three encounters. Well this time around Kiefer is ranked #187 in the world while Spadea is ranked #64 in the world. However, things are starting to change and it won't take long for Kiefer to be back in the TOP 100. Since his knee injury in Los Angeles a few months back (he was forced to retire from the finals), Kiefer looked okay in Montreal and Cincinnati showing that he could win in the first round against good opponents but also showing that he tired quickly and had problems in the second round. Spadea has won three straight first round matches at the US Open but his luck ends here because Kiefer is a lot better than Gilles Muller, Glenn Weiner (who the fuck?) and Luis Horna. Spadea is annoying to bet against but I trust Kiefer a lot in this one.
Gilles Simon 1.35 over Alexander Waske
We are down to the final match of the money making day and although the odds are once again shitty, there is no reason or personable excuse as to why Simon can't win this match in straight sets. I really liked what I saw from Simon in New Haven as he was able to beat Davydenko in a possible tanker by the Russian and that was after getting by Juan Martin Del Potro who had been on somewhat of a mini-tear on the hardcourts. He lost to eventual semi-finalist PHM in the next round but the point of his showing here is that Simon is capable of winning matches on hardcourts with short notice. His opponent in this match had an easy time in the qualies tournament as he beatup on the #196, #256 and #307 players in the world to get into the main draw. That does not prepare him at all for what he is about to face and I don't like betting on guys who had easy qualifying draws. Waske put up a good fight against Baghdatis in the first round of last year's tournament but in his two career first round matches at the US Open, he has yet to win a set. Although he might win one today, he is not about to win a second and I think Simon can get things done in three or four. Gilles Simon is a tough wager because he doesn't play much on hardcourts but neither does Waske and you have to go with the more experienced player. Simon is very unpredictable at times but his performance last week was enough to tell me he is ready to win at least one match in this year's US Open.
Good Luck to all!
All matches 1 unit
Using a system that went 21-4 in New Haven last week (regardless of odd value it picked dogs and favs), I have no choice but to make the following plays. This system evaluates players abilities on a certain surface and this system also evaluates players recent achievements and capabilities on this surface. Enjoy. I wish I had used this system instead of losing money all week but ah well, thats how it goes. The breakdown for New Haven was as follows:
ATP New Haven
Round of 48: 5-1
Round of 32: 12-0
Round of 16: 2-2
Quarter-Finals: 2-0
Semi-Finals: 0-1
Final: No Plays
21-4 last week using this system
Monday, August 27
Marcos Baghdatis 1.15 over Max Mirnyi
The price sucks but the bottom line is that Baghdatis is taylor made for tournaments like this one (slams other than Roland Garros) and I have no problems trying to steal a cheap penny with him here. Mirnyi did beat him on clay back in April in straight sets but like I said before, Baghdatis is not made for smaller ATP tournaments and he is not exactly made for the clay courts. Baghdatis lucked out last year when he had to face the emotional favorite Andre Agassi who had immense crowd backing and who was on his final hurrah as an ATP tennis player. The year before that he succumbed to the nerves of playing his first US Open as a player ranked in the TOP 100 and the year before that he had the displeasure of playing against Roger Federer in his second round match. Max Mirnyi is not in form to win this match as he is 0-5 in his last five tennis matches and has not won against a TOP 100 opponent since beating Gael Monfils in early June on the grass courts. This one could go four sets but like I said before, the money is in the bank and finally Baghdatis has the chance to come into this tournament feeling good about himself having won 4 of his 6 hardcourt season matches (only losses to Federer and Roddick).
Donald Young 2.11 over Chris Guccione
Let me tell you guys right now to be very very careful if your money is on the hard serving Aussie in this one. I know some of you fancy him because of the odds but I would like to remind you that this is the US Open, this is being played in front of American fans, there is no Andre Agassi or American Hero story to speak of as of right now and the tournament (media included) is searching for a story to talk about. What I mean by that is that they want to know which player should get the next few night time CENTRE COURT starts. Donald Young finally won his first ATP Tournament event match this past week in New Haven and he then gave the #4 player in the world a good run for his money in a nice three setter the following day. So if he almost beat the world's fourth best player, why the hell would he not be able to win this match against a guy who just lost to 346th ranked Keving Anderson in New Haven qualies??? Guccione is not in any kind of form to be blowing away opponents right now and since Donald Young no longer has the mental blockage of not winning his first ATP Tour match, I think the young American is going to pull out the big guns in this one and do some special things. Young has won grand slam junior events in the past meaning he is good enough to beat guys like Guccione. Don't waste your time, bet on the feel good story of this year's US Open.
Tomas Berdych 1.16 over Marc Gicquel
Once again this does not look like a tough one at all. Berdych comes into this match with a mediocre 2-2 record on the american hardcourts since arriving from Europe but thats a lot more than Gicquel can say seeing how he didn't make much of an effort to enter any tournaments and it seems like he is only here to collect the first round money payout. Surprisingly enough, and this may concern some, Gicquel somehow made it all the way to the Round of 16 in last year's US Open before losing to Roger Federer in three sets. Still...he managed to beat Christope Rochus, Gaston Gaudio and Juan Carlos Ferrero which was impressive at the time but which was also a full year ago. Since last year's US Open, Gicquel has gone 26-25 while Berdych continues to improve his game and impress his fans with a 51-24 record since the Open in 2006. Speaking of Berdych and the US Open, he was a round of 16 competitor as well in 2006 before crashing out against James Blake in a surprising easy three sets. Berdych has never lost an opening round match at Flushing Meadows winning in 2003 against Tomas Behrend, in 2004 against Jonas Bjorkman, in 2005 against Philipp Kohlschreiber and in 2006 against Boris Pashanski. That makes him 4-0 in the first round matches here and I think we can make it 5-0 after today.
Philipp Petzschner 2.91 over Benjamin Becker
Don't shy away from betting on upsets because believe me when I say that things are not going to go all that smoothly for all the favorites and anyone who thinks thats the case, get your head checked. We all found that out the hard way the last two or three weeks on these american hardcourts. To get into the main draw, the 23 year old german beat Dick Norman, Leonard Mayer and Alexander Peya to earn his first ever MAIN DRAW entry at a grand slam. So no doubt there are going to be some serious nerves for this guy in this match but the way Becker has been playing these days don't be shocked if he Petzschner gives him the ride of his life and manages to win this in five sets. Benjamin Becker is always going to be remembered for ending the career of Andre Agassi at last year's US Open in the Round of 32 and don't think for one minute that this crowd is going to take it easy on him. Since beating Agassi last year, Becker is only 30-35 in 65 matches and since coming over to American to prepare for this tournament, he is 0-4...losing his first round matches in Indianapolis, Washington, Cincinnati and Montreal. Looking at the big picture, Becker has lost six straight on hardcourts and has not won on this surface since a Round Robin match in Las Vegas back in February. Give me the upset here.
Richard Gasquet 1.08 over Sergio Roitman
Shitty odds is about all you can talk about here but I am a big fan of grabbing free cash when the opportunity presents itself and that is what I am going to do right here. Roitman is a big time waste of space in this draw and they need to do something about guys like him somehow sneaking into the main draw of tournaments that they don't care about. Let's face it. Since March 2006 when he played in the qualies for TMS Indians Wells, Sergio Roitman has played in only five hardcourt matches and two of those were in a Challenger event. In those five matches he went 1-4 with his only win coming against Simone Bolleli back in March which is nothing to be proud of. I think quite possibly that Roitman is the worst player in this entire tournament and Gasquet should have no problems wipping his ass in three sets. Overall in his career, Roitman is 15-33 in hardcourt matches which is pretty damn bad and once again which brings into question why guys like him are even here? Since becoming a star player a few years back, Richard Gasquet has done quite well at this tournament making it to the Round of 16 back in 2005 and making the Round of 16 last year. I know he lost in Cincinnati and in Montreal and has not won a hardcourt match since March but he just can't lose this one.
Paul Capdeville 1.70 over Rainer Schuettler
Experience is not to be discarded for anything in tennis and experience does matter when it comes to winning five set matches like this one but let me tell you that Schuettler is getting old and I think he is in for a tough time against a young Chilean who plays with his heart on his sleeve and who doesn't really care what Schuettler has done in the past. The german veteran looked pretty good in qualies this past week but I think the qualies tournament could very well have drained him and the day off in between the qualies and his first match could really do some damage to his body. Capdeville was also forced to qualify for this tournament and he was equally impressive but I was more impressed by his quarter-finals run in Washington back in July where he beat Bozoljac, Amer Delic and Thomas Johansson before crashing out against Ivo Karlovic. This is the same kid that beat Julien Benneteau at the Australian Open in the first round and who was as impressive as it gets in his huge win over Thomas Johansson. A lot of people thought Schuettler was going to beat Nicolas Mahut in the first round of this tournament last year but he ran out of steam and the same will probably happen here again. Schuettler has lost both his best of five setters over the last 12 months while Capdeville managed to beat Benneateau. I think we go five sets and I give to the Chilean.
Andy Murray 1.19 over Pablo Cuevas
The risk can be considered very high because we don't really have any way of knowing how Murray's injury has healed but I think I am going to take my chances on this one and see how things go. The young kid from Uruguay is probably scared shitless in New York City right now and even though he was impressive in his qualifying tournament run the past few days, I don't give him much of a shot in this match. Cuevas has not played in many ATP Tour events but he does have BEST OF FIVE SETS match experience because he is a key member of the Uruguay Davis Cup team and he has played in 11 matches that could potentially go to five sets. The only problem there is that this kid is a natural clay court player and the transition, although it has been smooth to kick things off for him in NYC, is going to be a lot tougher against a player like Murray who is trying to get back on track and who is not about to lose a match like this one. Murray is a bit embarassed after losing in a big time blowout against Marcos Baghdatis in Cincinnati a few weeks ago and he must still be embarassed about his loss against Fognini (another blowout) a week earlier in Montreal. Murray looked decent in practice the last few days and I think he can use his run to the Round of 16 in last year's tournament to somehow squeak by a win against this kid from Uruguay. The price is right because of his injury and I want to cash in.
Nicolas Almagro 1.23 over Alex Kuznetsov
Wow again this is another very good price and I don't think many people are going to look at this match and immediately think of free money. I know I am going to do it and I recommend you all do it as well. Since coming to the US after his clay and mini-grass court season, Alamgro has shown that his game has gone from clay court specialist to being a player with options in his career. Almagro has impressed everyone in recent week by beating Florian Mayer, Ivan Ljubicic and Jarkko Nieminen in Cincinnati a few weeks back before losing to Roger Federer but first stealing a set from him and making things as interesting as it gets. Secondly, Almagro gave some guys a good run for their money in New Haven but PHM was too much for him and he took an early flight out to the Big Apple. Almagro won his first round match at the US Open the last time he played here which was in 2005 when he beat Kenneth Carlsen. His opponent this time around is one of the mandatory young american wild card players...Alex Kuznetsov...who was in the very same position last year as a wildcard and he looked terrible losing in straight sets to Tommy Haas while winning only six games in three sets. Almagro is not going to let this kid play games and even if its not done in straight sets, I think the young spaniard shows that the last two weeks were not a fluke.
Sebastien Grosjean 1.52 over Paul Goldstein
I am not a big fan of going against Americans in tournaments like this one but sometimes you just don't have a choice and I think we are getting some value with Grosjean at this price. Of course in a match involving two complete ass clowns anything can happen but the point here is to figure out who is going to make the least amount of mistakes. What people don't realize is that Goldstein is actually older than Grosjean so I don't want to hear this garbage about the frenchy being too old and about him having problems winning matches nowadays. Grosjean has not done too well since coming over from Europe to play in the US Open series but Goldstein has been just as useless and there is no point backing a guy like him who has never won a first round US Open match against a player ranked in the TOP 100. The two times he did win a first round match at this tournament it was against guys ranked outside the TOP 100 so don't expect anything from him at this age. Grosjean on the other hand beat Thomas Johansson in the first round last year, beat Oscar Hernandez in the first round of the 2005 tournament, beat Olivier Patience in the 2004 first round and is 5-2 over the years in his first round matches at Flushing Meadows. It won't come easy but I do like this price a lot and will bank on Grosjean showing us some cash money baby!
Hyung-Taik Lee 1.69 over Dominik Hrbaty
If you guys bet on tennis long enough and you bet on tennis more than once a week, you have surely by now figured out that Dominik Hrbaty is one of the best fades out there and it's about time we all start cashing in on this fade machine. Hrbaty is 2-3 in the US Open series leading up to this tournament and those two wins were his very first in North America in more than 12 months. He comes into this tournament with a very good history here, including a quarter-finals experience in 2005 and a Round of 16 appearance in 2006. However, Hrbaty is nothing like he used to be back in the day and that is why guys like Lee are going to push him to make mistakes he cannot recover from. Hrbaty is only 8-13 on hardcourts the last 12 months which is really bad and which is going to hinder his chances here. Lee on the other hand is 22-14 in his last 36 hardcourt matches which dates all the way back to the 2006 US Open. I really like the way Lee is taylor made to win this match and I like the fact that Lee has just as much experience playing here as Hrbaty having been in seven US Open first round matches and winning four of them. Lee looked in good shape in both Washington and Indianapolis and I think he comes into this tournament seeking the one win and the one win only. Let it be Mr Lee we need a win here.
Paul-Henri Mathieu 1.69 over Fernando Verdasco
This is by far going to be one of the most entertaining matches of the first round because both players have been playing some decent tennis and both players have been known to choke and choke and choke some more over the years. In three career meetings, Mathieu is a brutal 0-3 against Verdasco but tossing those stats out for a few minutes, I think he gets the job done today. What I find the toughest to believe is how Verdasco managed to beat him twice on hardcourts and twice in 2007. This is a definite rematch of their match at the Aussie Open earlier this year where Mathieu was forced to retire, once again making the stats look a little bit different than they really are. Verdasco looked pretty good in New Haven as he beat both Nieminen and Spadea before going out against eventual champion James Blake. He also looked good in Montreal where he beat Gasquet and Chela before going out against the Canadian sensation Frank Dancevic. Mathieu on the other hand did some good things in Montreal, looked very tired in his opening round loss in Cincinnati but got back to form in New Haven last week where he beat Luis Horna, Gilles Simon and Nicolas Almagro before also losing out against eventual champion James Blake in the Semi-Final. Mathieu comes into this tournament looking to win his third first round match in four years here and I think he gets the job done for us. PHM to the bank.
Guillermo Canas 1.10 over Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo
I have not yet checked the local drug reports for the Flushing Meadoes area as of last week but sources tell me that the cartel set aside for Chela, Canas and the other Argies has been lost in transit and some of these guys are going to have to rely on what they used to call individual skills to win matches. With or without his syringes, I have no doubt that Canas is capable of beating this chump from Spain like he has already done twice in his career prior to this. RRH has not set foot on a hardcourt surface since TMS Miami all the way back in March and without the practice or experience on these kinds of courts, this guy is going to be in real trouble. Canas comes into the tournament having lost his only two matches of the US Open series (in Cincinati and Montreal) but I think he can be excused for losing to PHM and Del Potro who are both up and coming players. Hidalgo is as far as it gets from being a guy who is up and coming which is why this is the type of player Canas is going to have success playing against. Canas has not played here since 2004 when he won two matches while RRH has been here twice in the past and been sent home packing after only one match both times. I don't see why anyone would think that RRH is about to come here and finally win a match since he has not touched the hardcourts since March. See ya spaniard, bring on the muscle cream.
Nicolas Kiefer 1.39 over Vincent Spadea
This is going to be another one of those interesting matches that I would like to personally watch on TV (even though that wont happen) and I think that offering odds like this on Kiefer is a gift from heaven. Kiefer has looked in pretty damn good shape as of late and although I did have my doubts on betting on him earlier this year because of injuries, he has more than proved that he is back and ready to win matches. Spadea has somewhat of a mental edge in this one knowing that he beat Kiefer in two of their three career meetings but what you have to understand is that they have not playe against each other since 2004 and Spadea was ranked higher than Kiefer in all three encounters. Well this time around Kiefer is ranked #187 in the world while Spadea is ranked #64 in the world. However, things are starting to change and it won't take long for Kiefer to be back in the TOP 100. Since his knee injury in Los Angeles a few months back (he was forced to retire from the finals), Kiefer looked okay in Montreal and Cincinnati showing that he could win in the first round against good opponents but also showing that he tired quickly and had problems in the second round. Spadea has won three straight first round matches at the US Open but his luck ends here because Kiefer is a lot better than Gilles Muller, Glenn Weiner (who the fuck?) and Luis Horna. Spadea is annoying to bet against but I trust Kiefer a lot in this one.
Gilles Simon 1.35 over Alexander Waske
We are down to the final match of the money making day and although the odds are once again shitty, there is no reason or personable excuse as to why Simon can't win this match in straight sets. I really liked what I saw from Simon in New Haven as he was able to beat Davydenko in a possible tanker by the Russian and that was after getting by Juan Martin Del Potro who had been on somewhat of a mini-tear on the hardcourts. He lost to eventual semi-finalist PHM in the next round but the point of his showing here is that Simon is capable of winning matches on hardcourts with short notice. His opponent in this match had an easy time in the qualies tournament as he beatup on the #196, #256 and #307 players in the world to get into the main draw. That does not prepare him at all for what he is about to face and I don't like betting on guys who had easy qualifying draws. Waske put up a good fight against Baghdatis in the first round of last year's tournament but in his two career first round matches at the US Open, he has yet to win a set. Although he might win one today, he is not about to win a second and I think Simon can get things done in three or four. Gilles Simon is a tough wager because he doesn't play much on hardcourts but neither does Waske and you have to go with the more experienced player. Simon is very unpredictable at times but his performance last week was enough to tell me he is ready to win at least one match in this year's US Open.
Good Luck to all!
uppy: what a useless frenchman
hno:
